The Application Paradox: Applications are way up but enrollments in many private colleges are way down. How can that be?

An incisive article in this morning's Chronicle of Higher Education documents the meteoric rise in applications at many private universities.  But, as the writer explains, increased enrollments often do not follow.  Students and parents are applying to greater numbers of schools than ever before.  The reasons are many: the online common app; waiver of application fees at many colleges; SAT-optional rules at many others; hedging one's bets by applying to some back-up schools and/or applying to a wide number of better schools in hopes of getting at least one "hit".

As Moody's pointed out a couple of years ago, this paradox creates some very real planning nightmares.  Colleges are finding it ever harder to predict the actual enrollments they will have come autumn, making budget planning a bit of a crap shoot.  Some schools have mistakenly planned for much larger freshman classes than they actually got, creating a budget crisis.

To make matters worse, a dean I know recently revealed that many parents now are even willing to make forfeitable deposits to hold seats at back up schools while they continue trying to trade up and/or negotiate a better financial aide package elsewhere.  This adds to the air of unpredictability in which we are operating... a sort of "college bazaar" atmosphere.

My own mind wanders back to 1965, when I was applying to colleges.  The son of blue collar folks in a small Pennsylvania coal town, I came close to not applying at all.  My three best friends enlisted in the Army, Air Force and Coast Guard, respectively, and I gave serious consideration to going off with one or another of them.  My first cousin Tim invited me to visit Franklin and Marshall College, where he was a junior.  I stayed in his fraternity and attended some classes and eventually applied.

My high school counselor, a priest who knew little more about colleges than I did, suggested I should apply to a Catholic school.  Which one, Father?  "Well, I drove by LaSalle once and it looked nice."  (I am NOT making this up.)  On the strength of that resounding recommendation, I applied to LaSalle.

It turned out I was admitted to both schools, got a lot more money from F&M and ended up there.

Quite a contrast, you will agree, to the 8-10 colleges that the university bound high school senior solicits today.