The March 17 Chronicle of Higher Ed reports on page A24 that "An Immigrant Scholar Leads the Charge Against Computing's Biggest Roadblock." I assume the news peg for this story is the scientist's immigrant background. As a federal judge yesterday declared President Trump's second attempt at restricting immigration unconstitutional, this is a timely theme.
But to me the interesting aspect of the story is the potential "breakthrough" it portends. The story starts by noting, "After decades of rapid acceleration, the speed of transistors --- computerization's fundamental building blocks --- is hitting a wall." In other words, Moore's Law --- that the speed of computing will double every couple of years, or something like that --- is running up against the simple fact that in the physical world you can only pack matter just so tightly together. You can only make transistors just so small and then the atoms are cheek-to-jowl and you just can't pack 'em any tighter.
But --- joy of joys ---we have come to a "transition moment," when "neuromorphic computing" is using the human brain as its template for a whole new approach that promises to yet again maintain Moore's prophesy. If you want to know more about neuromorphic computing, google the article and read it. That's not the point of this post.
My concern is with the impact of ever more sophisticated artificial intelligence on the human race. Mr. Trump has promised to bring back manufacturing to the U.S. He's a very determined and ruthless fellow and he may succeed. But what he won't be able to do is bring back manufacturing jobs at anything like the level they were 40 or 50 years ago. His supporters, poor saps, who believe otherwise are doomed to disappointment. These jobs will go to robots.
Equally or more disconcerting is the prospect of more and more service jobs also going to AI. Admittedly, many of these jobs are far less lucrative than the manufacturing jobs they replaced. A barista at Starbucks makes nothing like the wages and benefits of an auto or steel worker of yore. Likewise a retail clerk. But at least they have jobs. Now even these positions are being co-opted by AI, especially via the internet, where we can purchase nearly anything we used to get in a store... and have the item in hand in 24 hours. Note the closing of malls, if you doubt me. We still have to stand in line for a good cup of coffee, I guess, but for how long will that last?
Most disturbing of all --- especially to college graduates --- is the prospect, fast becoming a reality, that such jobs as reporter, paralegal, and even healthcare provider are being displaced in whole or in part by AI.
It may have taken 60+ years, but Vonnegut's Player Piano dystopia is finally just around the corner. And now it seems that yet another "breakthrough" is about to make AI even more closely analogous to human thought.
A breakthrough? Really? I doubt that everyone would agree.
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