What does Flynn's resignation mean for Russiagate?

On one hand, the rapid ousting of Trump's National Security Advisor makes Trump look a lot smarter than Nixon.  Tricky Dick --- paranoid, proud and weirdly obstinate --- held onto advisors John Ehrlichman and H. R. Haldeman until --- like Jaws chewing its way up the ropes to the boat and eating Quint --- Watergate snapped him up as well.

I've always been fascinated by Nixon's irrational tenacity in the face of the relentless crisis that ultimately ruined his presidency and drove him from office.  He could have denounced the burglars right up front.  He could have cashiered his neo-Nazi advisors when the scandal got too close to the Oval Office.  Reputedly a lover of fireplaces even in August, he could have roasted the tapes one evening with Pat.  One arm around the First Lady and one casually tossing the damning recordings into the blaze.  But no, he had to hang onto the rail until he went down with the ship.

So Trump and Pence have wisely acted with alacrity, tossing General Flynn out on his ear.  A smart move.

But is Russiagate over?

I don't think so. As I drove to work this morning, NPR was reporting that Congressional Dems are asking when Trump knew about Flynn's conversations with the Russian ambassador.  Connect the dots.  Putin's regime helps Trump win the election.  The Obama Administration at 11:45 PM in its White House toughens sanctions against Russia.  Russia, uncharacteristically, doesn't complain.  Why not? Because Flynn tells the ambassador, no worries... when our guy takes the oath, sanctions will be relaxed.  Do you really believe he did this all on his own... a retired general who spent his whole life giving and taking orders?

And if he didn't do it all on his own, well then...

Can higher education meet the challenge of "the Age of Acceleration"

The book I'm currently 'reading' on my commute to and from my university is Thomas Friedman's Thank You for Being Late.  The book's subtitle is "An Optimist's Guide to Thriving in the Age of Accelerations."

       I have no doubt that Mr. Friedman is thriving and therefore has every reason to be an optimist.  However, he is failing to persuade me.

       First a word about his writing.  It may be that his style reflects his background as a reporter.  Or it may be --- as a colleague of mine who met him observed --- "he's really full of himself."  Or a bit of both.  Whatever, I find all his name dropping gets in the way of his narrative.  I'd prefer that he graduate from reporter and columnist to real scholar: digest the material, become yourself the expert, Mr. Friedman, and use footnotes to support your observations.

      That aside, the "gee whiz" nature of this book really annoys me.  One example: he describes how a museum curator and his staff in the 1980s spent two years developing an animated replica of a dinosaur  That same curator recently was able to use his smart phone to accomplish the same task in minutes.  How wonderful, gushes Friedman.  My question: what is the team doing now that their services on such projects is redundant, inefficient, unwanted and unneeded?

       We humans like to think that we are better than the dinosaurs that curator was modeling.  But are we indeed?  While the geniuses among us are charging relentlessly toward an AI-run world for their own reasons: fame, fortune, curiosity, etc. --- what is to become of the millions whose jobs are daily disappearing?  Sure, technology makes the best and brightest among us enormously efficient.  But what of the not-so-bright who once could make a living--- a good middle-class living --- on an auto assembly line or in a steel mill?  They now are baristos at Starbucks, as are all too many college grads, I'm afraid. If Friedman is right --- and I'm sure he is --- even the baristos will soon be redundant.

      And there is no way we can stop this from happening.  It is outside of our control.  Just as population growth is outside our control.  The growth is the uncontrolled and unintended result of billions of 'rational' decisions made by couples across the globe day after day and night after night.  Rational though every one of them may be (a doubtful generalization, of course), the cumulative effect is non-rational... as non-rational and uncontrollable as climate change and the rise of rodents was to the dinosaurs.

       We in higher education should and no doubt will help as many of our students to thrive in the age of acceleration.  But what of the billions we will never reach for myriad reasons? And what of the thousands, perhaps tens of thousands, we do reach, but who fail to thrive anyway?

       I guess Hot, Flat, and Crowded is Friedman's pessimistic book (although not really, since there "Friedman proposes... an ambitious national strategy—which he calls 'Geo-Greenism'.” An optimist, indeed!).  

       Call me the raven ala Edgar Alan Poe.  But it all sounds pretty pessimistic from the average Jane and Joe perspective.

If Twitter had been available to Hitler,

he might have tweeted:

                                                     Credit: https://twitter.com/hitlercriollo

On Field Marshall Von Hindenberg:

"[Von Hindenburg] is, without question, the WORST EVER president. I predict he will now do something really bad and totally stupid to show manhood!"

On his failed beer-hall putsch in Munich:

"Wow, every poll said I won the [uprising] last night.  Great honor!"

On the 1932 German election:

"This election is a total sham and a travesty. We are not a democracy!"

"More votes equals a loss... revolution!"

On getting the Reichstag to pass the enabling Act in 1933:

"Man shot inside Paris police station. Just announced that terror threat is at it highest level.  Germany is a total mess--- big crime.  GET SMART!"

About those who considered him a clown:

"Amazing how the haters & losers keep tweeting the name “F**kface Von Clownstick” like they are so original & like no one else is doing it..."

About those who considered him a dunce:

"Sorry losers and haters, but my I.Q. is one of the highest -and you all know it! Please don't feel so stupid or insecure,it's not your fault"

On global warming:

"The concept of global warming was created by and for [the Jews] in order to make [German] manufacturing uncompetitive."

"It's freezing and snowing in [Berlin].  We need global warming."

On his mistress:

"It was truly an honor to introduce [my girlfriend, Eva.]  Her speech and demeanor were absolutely incredible.  Very proud!"

After being stopped by the Russians at Stalingrad:

"The attack on [Russia] is turning out to be a total disaster. We gave them months of notice. [Germany] is looking so dumb."

Sources of the tweets:

https://www.indy100.com/article/presenting-donald-trumps-best-worst-tweets--Z1r35m__Zg

https://www.indy100.com/article/donald-trump-president-us-worst-tweets-ever-shocking-7408916

https://www.theodysseyonline.com/trump-20-worst-tweets

Is the middle class China's Frankenstein monster?

A freelance acquaintance of mine, Francesco Sisci, has published another thought-provoking article about China.  In it he points out that, while China's GDP has increased 8-fold since 2001, the Peoples Republic may have created the monster that will turn on it and bring it down.

       Sisci argues that the middle class has virtually no benefits from the state --- not health care, not pensions, not much of anything --- while this one-third of China's population is taxed heavily.  The middle class can't vote.  And it's pretty much on its own.

      I'm reminded of  France before the Revolution.  When Louis XIV was dying, legend has it, he muttered, "After me, the deluge."  Boy, did he get that right.  And that Revolution was driven in large measure by an emerging middle-class that resented the privileges of the royals.  The term "heads will roll" originated from the years that followed.

     Getting out of China, Sisci adds, is the goal of many, including multitudes of students who come to the US.  Last week, as an alumni ambassador for my alma mater Case Western Reserve, I interviewed a high school senior from South China, who lives with a host family in Bucks County outside Philly and attends a tony Catholic High School there.  He said his parents sent him here because of the poor quality of the high schools available to him back home.

    His story may be emblematic of the attitude of many middle-income Chinese, who don't see a return on value from the state in the Peoples Republic.  He may be one tiny indication of the trouble that Sisci sees on the horizon for America's huge Asian rival.

Echoes from the Past (#2)

"You refuse, as a 'statesman,' to admit that if we come to power legally we could then break through legality.  Herr Chancellor, the fundamental thesis of democracy runs, 'All power issues from the People.'  The constitution lays down the ways by which a conception, an idea, and therefore an organization, must gain from the people the legitimation for the realization of its aims.  But in the last resort, it is the People itself which determines the Constitution.  Herr Chancellor, if the German nation once empowers the National Socialist Movement to introduce a Constitution other than that which we have today, then you cannot stop it." --- Hitler to Hindenburg, October 14, 1932

Is OPT on the Trump hit list?

Yesterday I wrote about how Trump's intended confrontation with China might impact higher ed's pipeline of Chinese students.   Following up on that blog, I want this morning to note that the conservative Center for Immigration Studies includes on its list of nearly 80 immigration "reforms," the elimination of OPT.

For the uninitiated, OPT means Optional Practical Training.  At each level of their American education, F-1 visa holders on our campuses are entitled to one year of legal employment in the US either during or (as is usual) after graduation with a bachelor's, master's or doctoral degree.  Students apply to USCIS for an Employment Authorization (EAD) card, which looks a little like your driver's license.  They then can seek a job in a field related to their degree.  Usually it's for a year, though STEM students can hold such positions even longer.

According to an immigration lawyer with whom I have a long relationship, the CIS considers OPT just a subterfuge for stealing a job from an American worker.  CIS isn't entirely wrong.  Many non-immigrant student-visa holders hope to stay in the US long term.  And the OPT year often leads to an H-1B non-immigrant worker visa, which in turn often leads to a green card and permanent residency status.

And, since Trump says he's all about creating and preserving American jobs, it just may be that his administration will go after OPT when it gets around to a more extensive revision of US immigration laws, following the current confrontation created by his instantly infamous executive order.

Will Trump's "America First" Policy cost us students?

Here is a fascinating new article by a freelance acquaintance of mine, Francesco Sisci, who works out of Asia.  Francesco points out the risks we run vis a vis China with Trump's decision to push an "America First" agenda.  I suggested earlier in this blog that his relationship with Putin will be a quid pro quo: Putin helps the US squeeze China while Trump gives the Russians a free hand in the former Soviet states of eastern Europe.  A good piece in the January 23rd TIME magazine says much the same.

A question closer to home is whether Trump's attitude toward China will cost higher ed institutions Chinese students.  Even my small college counts on getting its share of the 300,000 such students coming to America every school year.

The Wall Street Journal explains, "They’re eager to escape flawed education systems back home, where low standards are leaving many ill-prepared for a global economy.
This is especially true in China, by far the biggest source of foreign students in America. Many Chinese youths see their own universities as diploma mills, churning out graduates whose earnings potential is often bleak. Government statistics show the average monthly salary for college graduates half a year after leaving school was 3,487 yuan ($539), slightly less than what a migrant worker in the construction sector makes on average."

If it's the students and their families, and not the government, that drives this market, then it seems the Peoples Republic could, and very well might, shut off the tap at any time.  Furthermore, fifteen years ago, when my school started recruiting Chinese students out of Shanghai, we used J-1 (exchange student) visas because F-1 (longer term study visas) were impossible to obtain; the US State Department might decide to return to such a tough policy again, if relations with China head south.  Thus, the trouble could come from either side of a trade confrontation.

One thing history teaches us about trade restraints: they breed trade wars.  And in many ways, ours is a business like any other... and therefore subject to trade restrictions just like any other.