Forty percent of private colleges, 30 percent of publics missed their enrollment goals this year.

This according to the Chronicle of Higher Education from its 4th annual survey of some 1000 institutions.  In a nutshell:

"As the number of high-school graduates dwindles, and their demographics shift, many colleges are struggling to attract enough students and cover expenses. More than four in 10 private colleges and almost three in 10 public ones missed their goals for enrollment and tuition revenue this year, according to the fourth annual Chronicle survey of small colleges and midsize public universities. In cooperation with the Council of Independent Colleges and the American Association of State Colleges and Universities, The Chronicle polled 1,063 colleges, of which 447 responded: 315 private and 132 public campuses."

The story uses as its example, Drew University, a semi-prestigious liberal arts college in north New Jersey.  Drew shot for 385 freshmen and wound up with 350.  And this was at an average tuition discount rate of 58 percent.

Can this be called a crisis?  To some extent, this is a relative concept.  Ten or more years ago I wrote a magazine article on Hiwassee College, a tiny southern Christian college that the Southern Accrediting Commission (SAC) was seeking to un-accredit.  Hiwassee took SAC to court.  The upshot?  Well, Hiwasee appears to be alive and (sort of) well, if one judges from its website.

Last year Sweet Briar College in Virginia tried its best to shut down but got blocked by alumni and friends in court.  In fact, this year the women's college got a record number of applicants.  

Bottom line: It's remarkably hard to kill a college. Still, some schools do close.  In the for-profit realm, Corinthian Colleges and ITT went bust and closed their doors after the Department of Education cut off their federal grant-and-loan cash streams.  According to Moody's, the average for the past decade has been five closures per year.  Six closed in 2014.  Beginning next year, predicts Moody's, the average will climb to 15 per year.  Private schools with revenues below $100 million per year, and publics with gross annual income below $200 million are the most vulnerable.

With tuition being the lifeblood of most of these small schools, an average discount rate of 48 percent --- according to NACUBA --- is probably an unsustainable business model for many of them.  This average reduction from the sticker price has been steadily rising, and as the Drew data indicates, the bottom hasn't yet been plumbed.

Of course, the base is 2300 non-profit colleges and universities.  So, if one isn't chewed up in this gradual decline, then the loss of even 15 schools per year is hardly a crisis for this sector of the higher education industry as a whole.  One might go so far as to characterize it as a natural response to shifting demographics and the weeding out of the weak members of the herd.  As I say, it all depends on your perspective.